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Bavarian Nordic (BUY - January 2010)
We initiated coverage on 17 January 2010 when we felt that the company was about to become self-funding and would no longer have to rely on shareholders for project funding. Given the upside we saw in Prostvac, we set our target price at DKK 200 and have since raised that to DKK 400 following the approval and fast-tracking of Dendreon’s Provenge
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Norwegian (SELL - May 2010)
In May 2010, we downgraded Norwegian to SELL arguing that they, despite their superior operational performance, would be struck by the challenging market balance. Estimates were taken down as new capacity were expected to surpass demand growth resulting in lower yields.
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Golar LNG downgrade (SELL - January 2012)
We downgraded Golar LNG to a SELL in January 2012, as we believed the equity market discounted a more positive newsflow than reasonable to expect, spot shipping rates were peaking and valuation stretched.
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Norwegian case (BUY - March 2012)
In March 2012 we increased the target price of Norwegian to NOK 150, as we recognized the halving of capacity growth coming into the Nordic aviation market in 2012-2014 compared to 2010-2011. As a consequence, we argued for prices to move up with the oil price as a catalyst, and increased our EPS estimates by close to 40%.
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Salmon case (BUY - June 2012)
All salmon farming companies under coverage were raised to BUY in June 2012, as our Seafood team argued at that time for a 100% upside in a two year horizon. The sector was raised to BUY on an assumption of supply growth dropping from 19% in 2012 to 4% in 2013, coupled with a positive demand shift as low salmon prices had led to increased market penetration.
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